https://arunmitra.com/tags/stl-decomposition/ Recent content in STL decomposition on Arun Mitra Hugo -- gohugo.io en Sat, 01 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://arunmitra.com/research/tb-notification-seasonality-india/ Sat, 01 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000 https://arunmitra.com/research/tb-notification-seasonality-india/ Background Tuberculosis notifications in India rise and fall over the year, and that seasonality is often read as a property of the disease — transmission, reactivation, or care-seeking shifting with the seasons. But notifications are produced by a reporting system, not just by biology. Campaign drives, working-day patterns, and public-sector reporting behaviour can imprint their own rhythm on the data. This study asks whether India’s apparent TB seasonality is a disease signal or, in part, a reporting artefact.