https://arunmitra.com/tags/bayesian/ Recent content in Bayesian on Arun Mitra Peddireddy Hugo -- gohugo.io en Sat, 14 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://arunmitra.com/blog/2026-11-14-bayesian-disease-mapping-inla/ Sat, 14 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://arunmitra.com/blog/2026-11-14-bayesian-disease-mapping-inla/ District-level counts of disease are noisy. A district with 4 cases and an expected count of 2 looks twice as risky as one with 400 cases and an expected count of 200, yet the first number tells us far less. Bayesian disease mapping fixes this by letting each district borrow strength from its neighbours. INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation) fits these models in seconds, not hours, which makes it a good first tool for health data.